Capacity commissioned during the last upswing continues to land, and the market is absorbing it slowly. For producers at the higher end of the cost curve, that combination is uncomfortable.
The practical question for allocators is whether current pricing already reflects a soft landing. Most of the strategists we spoke with argue it partly does, which leaves limited room for disappointment.
Balance sheets differ more than headline production figures suggest. Several developers have funding runway into the next cycle; others do not.
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