The copper deficit has been forecast for most of a decade, and for most of a decade it has been pushed back. Understanding why says more about the market than the forecasts do.
Grade decline at the major operations is real and well documented. What has repeatedly closed the gap is demand disappointing rather than supply surprising.
Electrification changes that arithmetic, but not as quickly as the headline numbers imply. Grid spending is lumpy, and substitution at the margin is more responsive than models assume.
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